•AR-Sen, -Gov: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor has just released a new internal poll from Harstad Research that places him up 45-39 on GOP Rep. Tom Cotton. This is actually the first poll since early May to find Pryor leading, but except for the recent YouGov survey that had Cotton ahead 50-46, every single set of numbers between then and now has come from Republican outfits.
However, we did also finally get some new data from a traditional independent pollster on Tuesday, shortly after Pryor (perhaps pre-emptively) released his own numbers. The latest Talk Business-Hendrix College poll shows the race headed in Cotton's direction. He now leads 44-42, with the Green Party candidate taking 4 and the Libertarian 3. In April, back when a spate of polls brought good news for the incumbent, Pryor was up 46-43.
This is the first time we've seen any data from Harstad, so we don't have any trendlines to examine. But we did recently take a look at Harstad's track record, and for the most part, they did quite well last cycle, without a consistent bias in either direction. The Hendrix trendlines, though, are quite concerning for Pryor.
P.S. While it's not included in the memo, James Hohmann says Harstad also found Republican Asa Hutchinson edging Democrat Mike Ross 42-41 in the governor's race.